Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 581 · LAS → OAK
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 8:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.