Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 586 · PHX → SEA
departs 4:51 PM MT · arrives 7:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.