Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 683 · HOU → MSY
departs 10:19 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
MSY is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.