Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 736 · BNA → STL
departs 8:02 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 14%
Wed 11/4 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,167 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.