Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 737
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 737 · DEN → LIT
departs 1:01 PM MT · arrives 4:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at LIT that day
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.