Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 748
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 748 · SAN → RNO
departs 3:07 PM PT · arrives 4:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 39%
Fri 11/6 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.