Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 778 · MSY → MDW
departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 6:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.