WN 8700 · PAE → PHX

departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 5:23 PM MT

Your aircraft is N9041J (B38M).

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.85 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8700 · PAE → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?