Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 898 · BUR → PHX
departs 4:17 PM PT · arrives 5:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.