Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 940
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 940 · MSY → PHX
departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 3:48 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.