Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AIR PREMIA · FLIGHT YP 111 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 31 Today

YP 111 · ICN → SFO

departs 4:45 AM KST · arrives 10:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

ICN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YP 111 · ICN → SFO

Odds over time