Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3492 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:53 AM CT, ETA 1:00 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 31 Today

YX 3492 · ORD → ROC

took off 10:53 AM CT · expected to land 1:00 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

ROC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3492 · ORD → ROC

Odds over time