YX 4686 · JFK → RDU

took off 11:18 AM ET · expected to land 12:29 PM ET (scheduled 11:22 AM ET → 1:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4686 · JFK → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?