Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1156 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1156 · PHX → CMH

departs 4:03 PM MT · arrives 9:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.78 in

CMH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1156 · PHX → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?