Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1271 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1271 · DFW → CHA

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 11:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ CHA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CHA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1271 · DFW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?