Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

departs 8:43 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±10 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?