Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1398 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1398 · PHL → SEA

departs 6:14 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1398 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?