AA 1421 · PHX → AUS

departs 6:35 PM MT · arrives 9:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.69 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1421 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?