AA 1453 · PHX → TPA

departs 11:03 PM MT · arrives 5:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1453 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?