Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1487 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1487 · DFW → SEA

departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 11:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1487 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?