Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1513 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1513 · DFW → BFL

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BFL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BFL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1513 · DFW → BFL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BFL?