Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1537 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1537 · PHX → SJC

departs 8:47 PM MT · arrives 9:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±15 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

SJC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1537 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?