Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1548 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1548 · PHX → DFW

departs 3:20 PM MT · arrives 6:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.9 mi Precip1.65 in

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1548 · PHX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?