AA 1594 · PHX → SBP

departs 9:34 PM MT · arrives 10:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

SBP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1594 · PHX → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?