AA 1625 · SMF → PHX

departs 7:24 PM PT · arrives 10:27 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
39%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1625 · SMF → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?