Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1666 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1666 · PHX → ONT

departs 5:19 PM MT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±6 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

ONT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1666 · PHX → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?