AA 1744 · PHX → CLE

departs 4:49 PM MT · arrives 11:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.68 in

CLE (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1744 · PHX → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?