Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1765 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 1765 · PHX → RNO

departs 8:38 PM MT · arrives 9:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±10 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

RNO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1765 · PHX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?