Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1771 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1771 · DFW → LAS

departs 6:52 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1771 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?