Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1774 · ORD → RSW

departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1774 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?