AA 1813 · PHX → SAN

departs 11:45 AM MT · arrives 12:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at SAN that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

SAN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1813 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?