AA 1814 · SJD → PHX

departs 2:20 PM MST · arrives 4:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SJD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1814 · SJD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?