AA 1825 · PHX → CMH

departs 5:09 PM MT · arrives 11:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±16 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.68 in

CMH (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1825 · PHX → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?