AA 1854 · ORD → SFO

departs 6:53 PM CT · arrives 9:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1854 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?