Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1855 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1855 · PHX → SBA

departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 9:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

SBA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1855 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?