Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1858 · PVU → DFW

departs 2:09 PM MT · arrives 6:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PVU that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ PVU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PVU (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.82 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1858 · PVU → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?