Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1868 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1868 · DFW → PIT

departs 2:56 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1868 · DFW → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?