AA 1939 · PHX → AUS

departs 4:29 PM MT · arrives 7:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.68 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1939 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?