Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1954 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1954 · ORD → SFO

departs 6:56 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±10 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1954 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?