AA 2043 · PHX → STL

departs 7:57 PM MT · arrives 12:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.70 in

STL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility3.33333 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2043 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?