Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2058 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2058 · PHL → SAT

departs 6:14 PM ET · arrives 9:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2058 · PHL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?