AA 2183 · PHX → MSY

departs 1:23 PM MT · arrives 5:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip2.03 in

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2183 · PHX → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?