AA 2194 · DFW → ORF

departs 6:52 PM CT · arrives 10:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2194 · DFW → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?