Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2201 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2201 · PHX → ORD

departs 7:00 PM MT · arrives 11:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2201 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?