AA 2238 · BNA → DFW

departs 7:25 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.65 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2238 · BNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?