Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2284 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2284 · PHX → DSM

departs 6:54 PM MT · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

DSM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2284 · PHX → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?