Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2301 · PHX → PHL

departs 11:12 PM MT · arrives 6:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ PHL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.64 in

PHL (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2301 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?