Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2309 · DFW → TUL

departs 5:07 PM CT · arrives 6:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2309 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?