Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2333 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2333 · DFW → SFO

departs 5:28 PM CT · arrives 7:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2333 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?