Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2392 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2392 · ORD → SEA

departs 10:05 PM CT · arrives 12:29 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2392 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?